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Now before I divulge the list, let me first address contrarian betting and how I see it's role in the overall scheme of things. First off, contrarian betting is not a good idea for those looking at sports betting simply as a way to generate revenue. Contrarian betting does involve winning (although much less often than I would like) but it is generally something its advocates do for the thrill or fun of it rather than the dividends returned. That said, the dividends returned by this form of sports betting can be ridiculously high if you are good. Sadly, to be good, one needs to watch huge amounts of football, to spend hours of time analyzing the respective teams, and to get damn lucky. If you believe that you have what it takes, here's what you'll get: 1. A highly risky form of betting. 2. Several potential heart attacks per season. 3. Weeks of loses followed by a win or two that will recoup all of the losses combined. 4. General disdain from most other fans who you will invariably be rooting against. 6. A terrible strategy for consistent winning (Note: Gamblers looking for a way to just make money should use simple no frills strategies that pay out small consistent returns. For example, having multiple "bookies" and researching the lines to find true advantages in the various number discrepancies.) That said, what is contrarian betting specifically? In a nutshell, contrarian betting involves betting on the dog to topple the favorite. Though this is nothing new to most sports fans, true contrarian bettors will not simply bet a 3 point dog playing on two-weeks rest. That isn't "real" contrarian betting. Real contrarian betting involves riding the moneyline on a team you know is "underrated" against a heavy favorite. Think Troy State last year against Mississippi State (-24) or Syracuse as an 18 point dog against VTech. Though these bets don't seem too bizarre in hindsight, having the guts to drop even $25 (or $2,500 for our wealthy readers) on the moneyline for Troy State is one gutsy call. And generally speaking, most contrarian bets do not turn out as well as the few just mentioned. Anyway, now that we have the spirit of contrarian betting out in the open, we can tell you who should be a contrarian bettor. The individual: 1. Is a sports fan 2. Likes to have "something riding" on every game 3. Doesn't chase his bets 4. Doesn't mind losing for the "thrill of winning the big one" 5. Probably plays the lottery now and then 6. Can rationalize sports betting as another form of entertainment that costs "a few bucks" here and there.... So, if you are not thoroughly dissuaded from betting the dogs yet, here is my pre-season top ten list of great contrarian bets. (Note, I'll be posting a contrarian bet of the week every week to augment these games as many may not have a line worthy of the risk once the season is actually in full swing...) 10. USC over Colorado - Generally I don't pick big conference teams as my contrarian dogs, but USC will be travelling to Colorado and playing only their second game. This could produce a favorable line in what should be a good game against a top Big-12 opponent. 9. Penn State over Nebraska - Another battle of "Big Teams" but what may prove to be a season defining game for JoePa and the Nittany Lions. (This game is doubtful to have the great line a contrarian bettor looks for, but if PSU loses the 1st game to one of my top five contrarian bets, Central Florida, they enter the game 0-1 with the big cloud of questions from the last two seasons looming large. This could inflate the line to a more classic contrarian bet.) 8. Toledo over Minnesota or Pittsburgh - I like Toledo even though they are in a "rebuilding" year. Either of these games presents an attractive option depending on how the "big teams" are faring. A solid first two games by Minn. should put them as solid favorites against the visiting Rockets, where Pitt could easily be entering this game 4-0. In either scenario, we should see a decent moneyline for Toledo to swipe. 7. Utah over Michigan - The Utes get Michigan in game four after a good slate of "warm-up" games. They play in state rival Utah State, then Indiana, then Arizona, and finally head to the Big House. Given, they probably won't win, but the line should be great, and you can get an idea of their talent level by checking them out against an improving Arizona team. Further, Michigan starts hard early with Washington as game 1 and Notre Dame as game three before facing the Utes. An injury of any sort, or simply overlooking the Utes for the beginning of their BigTen schedule could make the Wolverines especially susceptible. 6. SDSU over UCLA - This is probably one of the more gutsy calls on this list, but that's what being contrarian is all about. SDSU figures to be at or near the bottom of the Mountain West this season but they play UCLA at home. And after a challenging schedule against Fresno State, Colorado, ASU, and Idaho, they should be well tested before facing the Bruins. Watching those games will give you an idea if the Aztecs can play with the Bruins who may well be looking ahead to big games against Oregon State in Oregon the next two weeks. 5. Marshall over VTech - This is a toss-up. It is highly arbitrary now whether Marshall will even be a dog in this game. If VTech rolls in 2-0 with a solid victory over LSU, you can expect them to be the favorite. If they stumble against the Tigers in week 2, no dice and this bet may well be a wash.... 4. Troy State over Arkansas - Troy State shocked most everyone last year with a 7-4 season entering 1A ball. They likely will not finish as well this year as they have a few key losses at critical positions, but this game may provide a great bet. Look for TSU to get beat up a bit early in games against Nebraska, Iowa State, Missouri, and Marshall, but against a team like Arkansas, they may have just what they need to pull a profit-taking upset. Catch them early this year and see if they have the goods necessary to compete. 3. Miami (OH) over LSU - Another potentially reckless call but check out the Red Hawks in game 1 at UNC or in 2 against Iowa to see if you think they can pull one against the Tigers. Actually, depending on the lines you get, you may want to drop a small one on those first two as well. The MAC is guaranteed to pull a handful of upsets this year and Miami is one of the top three or four teams in the conference. With the number 2 QB in the league (behind Heisman hopeful Byron Leftwich) the Hawks could easily chalk up an upset or two early. 2. Central Florida over Penn State - The MAC has been the terror of the BigTen as of late and things could easily continue this season. Central Florida will challenge Marshall for the league crown in the East and should have enough juice to get by PSU. But that is dependent on which Penn State shows up -- the team that rolled Arizona a few years back in a season opener of top ten teams, or the Penn State of last year that opened 0-4. If the Lions are on their game, C Florida won't win, but if you have a solid line here, I like the risk... 1. Louisville over FSU - In all honesty, this isn't all too contrarian either. The Moneyline will likely not be +400, but nonetheless, this game has fun all over it. Both teams need this game (FSU to stay in the Championship hunt and Louisvlle for a shot at a BCS Bowl.) So expect both to play hard. Additionally, the game is on a Thursday so it plays out perfectly for those of us who hate having to miss a play here and there while toggling through all 10 games currently showing on DirecTV. So just for the sheer joy of this one, and a chance at a +150, I'll call the cards in a huge mid-season upset. Care to disagree? Check out the forums and post your diatribes here: http://www.againsttheline.com/cgi-bin/ikonboard/ikonboard.cgi ----- |
 
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