Commentary
Dear Mountaineer Fans...
By College Sporting Plus
Aug 3, 2006, 10:19

Special to Against the Line from College Sporting Plus

Have you ever noticed how some fans feel the need to adamantly defend their team regardless of the severity of the insult perpetrated against them? This very thing has happened to me this year after placing WVU at number 14 in my Preseason poll. And what's worse, is that the vast majority of these fans send me random messages whining like a school girl or with a copy of an article from a local paper about how good the newpaper feels their fanbase is.

For future reference, I don't care to read whiny commentary about why you think I'm wrong nor do I care to read anything written by a paper on a team's fanbase. Hell, even if it was written about my Florida Gators and their fanbase, I could care less. I won't read it. That said, for all of those of you thinking about emailing or contacting me, here is a copy and paste of the message I have been giving to all WVU fans lately:

Dear West Virginia Fan:
Many of you seem to have me putting WVU @ 14 mixed up with me thinking they will do awful. Considering they only play 3 conference games away from home, and their other non-conference away games are easy wins, I believe WVU, will finish no worse then a 10-2. 9-3 if an injury to White or Slaton occurs. But WVU fans look at last years record as a reason why WVU will dominate this year.

Guess what I call that? Ignorance! You think I am going to listen to anyone tell me that because you went 11-1 last year, you are going to go 12-0 this year? Pure comedy gold my WVU readers. I like Rich Rodriguez and I love watching Pat White and Steve Slaton play the game. I don't dislike WVU, only their stuck up fans who think WVU is now a powerhouse in football because of their first win over a big time football program in some years.

Now onto my football reasons for why I think WVU will place 2nd in the Big East. First, the secondary is the worst that RR has had under his watch since he took over @ WVU. They lost 3 starters from last years squad. Now, when you go into a place like Lousiville or Pittsburgh and play 2 great QBs like the ones WVU will face in Brian Brohm and Tyler Palko, it will be tough for WVU to keep passing attacks like that from getting into rhythm. And rhythm in their own place.

I am now going to give you some numbers from a magazine I read that is very helpful in me gathering my opinions for football season. West Virginia was listed as having won 4 games by a TD or less. As the magazine puts it, over the past 7 years, on average, when a team has 4 close wins or less one year, 81.3% of the time they have a weaker, or same record the next year. Only 3 times has a team had a stronger record the next year. As a matter of fact, from Phil Steele's magazine, which I read like the bible with my own additional research from official NCAA sites:

"I mentioned TCU and Ohio State above, well the Horned Frogs who benefitted from 6 net close wins were 11-1, but the next season dropped to 5-6, while the Buckeyes went from 10-2 to 8-4."

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"In 2001, Illinois won the Big 10 Title, benefitting from 4 net close wins, going from 10-2 and the next year fell to 5-7. Tennessee went from 10-3 in 2004 achieving 5 net close wins and finished 5-6 last year."

My last reason is simple. While I believe WVU is a very well coached team that runs a complex offense and throws complicated looks at people on defense, West Virginia players and coaches have to do a better job of living up to the hype. In 2004 they were favored to win the Big East, and get a BCS at-large berth at the very least. They finised 8-4, with a very easy schedule at that.

Last year they were figured to finish behind Pitt and Louisville. All the pre-season hype was on both teams. Th hiring of Dave Wannstedt made many people believe Pitt, with Tyler Palko, would fight out a high powered Lousiville team. Both teams struggled and West Virginia, with a new QB and a new RB, and with no expectations, came out of the Big East and beat a very talented UGA squad in the Sugar Bowl.

Now all the hype and expectations are on WVU. I will not be surprised or disappointed if WVU gets to the National Championship or even wins the Big East. I will eat crow and admit I was wrong.

That is that.

If you send another piece of mail to me whining like a school girl, I will simply re-direct you to this commentary. Have a nice day.

Republished from College Sporting Plus

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