Free Picks
Week Three Free College Football Picks
By The Guy Next Door
Sep 14, 2006, 16:20

#11 Michigan (+6½) at #2 Notre Dame (NBC 3:30est)

Notre Dame 2-0 SU and 1-1ATS, is a home favorite for the second straight week, after stonewalling Penn State last Saturday and raising Weis' record to 3-3ATS in that roll. Coming to town to take on Charlie and the Brady Bunch this week is Michigan, their yearly nemesis from the north. This is a tough "Sandwich" spot for the Domers. Last week they took care of JoePa's boys and next week they travel to the other side of the Wolverine state to tackle the Spartans,
who upset them in South Bend last year. The Wolverines 2-0 SU but 0-2ATS so far in '06, have yet to be profitable for the public. That will change this week. Taking a closer look at the numbers reveals that four of the last five
meetings between these two have been decided by eight points or less. Where's the Money? Under Carr, the Wolverines are 9-4 as road dogs, and since '92, the 'Dog in this series is 9-1 ATS. Tell the window guy you want the Maize and
Blue!

#17 Miami (+4½) at #12 Louisville (ABC 3:30est)

Let me ask you this, if Miami would have held on to beat Florida St. on Labor Day, who would be favored in this game? Louisville, having outscored their opponents 121-28 this year, host the Hurricanes as 4½ chalk. This will be the
first time a ranked team has played at Louisville since '02. In fact, this will only be the fifth ranked team that the Cards have played in five years. The Cards have been favored in 17 straight RS games. The last time they were a
dog? '04 at Miami. There is no more of a vicious dog in the country than Miami. The Hurricanes have only been an underdog six times in this decade. They've won outright each time. Bobby Petrino, passing on the NFL Raiders HC job, has turned the Cards into a national player, but this game is the fork in the program's road. This is it, do they step up and join the land of legitimate heavyweight contenders or do they "Turtle Pack" it and crawl back into their shell like Boise St. did vs. Georgia last year. Petrino has had an
easy road of late, whipping up on the now stagnant Big East. But on the "Big Stage," when the money's on the line, he hasn't gotten it done. He had a 24-7 lead vs. West Va. last year and lost and his 1-2 SU and 0-3ATS bowl record speaks for itself. This year's Louisville Football media guide has Brian Brohm and Michael Bush on the cover. Both will play in the NFL, but only the QB Brohm will play Saturday. Bush broke his leg vs. Kentucky and his college career is over. That's a big loss. They're planning T-38 fly-bys and pulling out all the bells and whistles for the biggest game ever at Papa John's Stadium, but over the years, if any team can silence a crowd and take over, it's the Miami Hurricanes. Anyone who watched this team vs. Florida St. could see how fast they are and this will be a rare occasion where the 'Canes play on turf. Linebacker Tavares Gooden said earlier this week. "Basically, this is for our season." That's a pretty strong statement for week #3. And let's face it, there are rumors floating around Coral Gables that this might be Larry Coker's last game if he loses. Where's the Money? Listen, when you have the Pit-Bull of 'Dogs with their backs against the wall, you don't ask questions. Take the 4½ points, but don't shy away from the +160 on the money line either.

#7 Florida (-3) at #13 Tennessee (CBS 8:00est)
Urban Meyer leads Florida to Knoxville for their first SEC game of the year, as a road favorite. The Gators are 9-2-1ATS in their first conference contest of the season since '94. Florida is 2-0 both SU and ATS as they have
steamrolled their first two opponents by a combined 76-7. This is Meyer's second season as Florida's HC and in his second season at Utah, the Utes were 4-1ATS as road favorites. Waiting in the weeds, for their third straight home game, will be the model for inconsistency, the Tennessee Volunteers. Tennessee is 4-9 SU and 3-9-1ATS, the last 13 games of this series. It seems like just yesterday that Rivals.com was giving daily updates on the Gator/Vols recruiting war over Chris Leak. Leak, annoyed by Tennessee's treatment of his brother, C.J., chose the swamp. It's funny how these things play out, but four years
later, Leak will raise 'Ole Phil's blood pressure once again. Adjust your seat! Phil Fulmer has coached in 165 games in 14 years at Tennessee. In those 165 games, the Vols have only been an underdog in seven. They are only 2-5 in those seven games and have not covered as a home 'dog since 1997. Where's the Money? When odds-makers have Tennessee "getting" at home, they know that they are overmatched!

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