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Free College Football Pick, Oregon v ASU
By The Guy Next Door
Sep 30, 2006, 11:08

#24Oregon (+1) vs. Arizona St. (ABC 3:30est)

Early on in the week, this gamed opened up as Oregon-2 and the betting public pounded the home Devils hard enough to now make them the one point favorite. Hhmmm? This is the same AZ State team that went to Cal. last week and were
down 42-14 at the half, before Jeff Tedford eased his Golden Bears up for a 49-21 final. AZ State QB Rudy Carpenter threw four picks and the team as a whole racked up nine penalties for 70 yards. When asked about the INT's, Carpenter said, "I just turned the ball over too many times, that's the story of my year so far, I'm trying to change something every week and it doesn't seem to work." So, that's who the bettors, whose money has moved the line, are firing on ha? A QB without a clue! Brilliant!! It seems there's anegative bias toward Oregon stemming from the "Oklahoma-Replay Game". Ahh yes, the game in which Oregon passed for 343 yards against a pretty tough defense. Last week, Cal's Nate Longshore threw for 270 yards and four TD's against the Devils, the Duck's Dennis Dixon is better. If we dug deep enough we could find stats on almost anything and many of them are just useless jargon, but this one sticks out. When I think of Oregon Ducks football, I think of those ugly green and yellow uniforms supplied by Nike founder Phil Knight and the fast turf of Autzen Stadium aiding their fast paced "Quack Attack". It all just looks video game fake to me. But wait a minute; on Saturday Oregon plays on the natural grass of Sun Devil Stadium. They have won 15 of their last 17 regular season games on grass, including a big non conference win at Fresno three weeks ago. Where's the money? In the last eight years, Arizona St. is only 4-9ATS the game before a bye, they're off next week. The Ducks, meanwhile, are 12-3ATS the last 15 games after a bye, they were off last week. To make this even clearer, the Ducks are 5-1ATS the last two years as road dogs
(which they now have become). Listen, a big part of handicapping is seeing the future. Next week Oregon is headed for their own showdown in Berkeley, California and they will be undefeated when they get there! Hey, you know
how it goes when the public's all on one side. Quack, Quack!!

Sweeps, Screens and Tackle Traps

* I've followed college football for 25 years and I've never seen anything crazier than Vanderbilt -34 this week. My lined information goes back to 1998 and the
biggest favorite that the Commodores have been in that time was -17 at home to Northern Illinois in 1999. Did they cover? They won by three, 34-31. Since '98 Vandy has been a home favorite of ANY number 14 times, they've only covered in three. Now they're giving Temple 34, hilarious. Ya know, the Commodores may very well get there, but throw some loose change on the Owls and give them some support.

* Iowa is 6-1-1ATS in their last eight as a home dog. The home team in this series (Ohio State) is 7-2ATS since '95.

* Florida is 0-5-1ATS in their last six against Alabama

* Tennessee is just 1-8ATS since '98 vs. current Conference USA Teams. (Marshall)

* LSU is 13-1both SU and ATS vs. Mississippi State since '92

* Nebraska is 23-7ATS vs. Kansas dating back to 1976. Last year Kansas beat the Huskers for the first time in 36 years. I'm gonna tell you what, there's gonna be payback this year in Corn Country!

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