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The Guy Next Door, Free College Football Picks
By The Guy Next Door
Oct 5, 2006, 14:40

Vanderbilt (-1½) at Ole Miss (1:00est)

Here we see something that doesn't happen every day, every week, every season or in this case once a decade. Vanderbilt is a favorite in back to back games.

It happened in '04, (Miss. State and Rutgers) both games were at home and they split, both SU and ATS. (I should at that #1 DC Jay Cutler was on that team) Here, the Commodores take it on the road in a giving spot, for only the second time since '01. The other time? They were -4 at Kentucky in that same '04 season; they lost the game 14-13. In fact, the 'Dores are 1-5 ATS as a road favorite since '96. They're also banged up on both sides of the ball. As coach Bobby Johnson said, "We could have five or six starters out for this game." Not a profitable way to travel.

Waiting their arrival in Oxford, Miss. will be the Rebels, a team looking for a breakout game. Ole Miss is 11-3 vs. Vandy since SEC divisional play began in '92. Last week the Rebels (+18), gave #10 Georgia all they could handle, but were outmanned 14-9. What sticks out in that game is that Ole Miss out rushed UG 156-133 and UG is the current national leader in defense, allowing just 233yds. and 6.8 pts per game.

Conversely, Vandy gave up 122 yards on the ground to Temple, who had averaged just 41 ground yards in their previous four games. Hhhmmm? Ole Miss' Coach Ed Orgeron was the D-Line coach at Miami in the early 90's and held the same post at USC for their two National Championship seasons. He's brought in QB Brent Schaeffer, the #1 rated JUCO by Super Prep and his time has come. This is the week they put it all together.

Where's The Money? As long as the back rooms of Vegas want to throw Vandy at us, we're gonna throw it right back at 'em. Ole Miss is 9-1 SU on homecoming the last 10 years (which this is) and "The Grove" will be rocking with 60,000 plus. Take the points, and instead of taking your girl to brunch on Sunday, throw that money on the money line!


#13Tennessee (-2½) at #10Georgia (7:45est ESPN)

Here's a game we'll fire on based completely on numbers. As I've stated above, UG has the #1 ranked defense in the country (6.8 per game.) But, they are only 89th on offense, at 25 pts. a game. If you dig deeper and throw out the 48 pts. vs. I-AA W. Kentucky, they've only averaged 20 pts. a game vs. D-I opponents, and they're the #10 team in the country? That smells like something, and it ain't chicken!

Georgia is one of those teams that the public loves to jump on, but we never know much about them. They're always ranked, always undefeated until mid-season, receive some hype and then lose a game and disappear from the map until they beat Georgia Tech at the end of the year and then head to their bowl game. Right?

David Greene and D.J. Shockley are now just a memory and this offense is on an island without paddles. This year's UG team is the most overrated of them all. If you saw Mark Richt's press conference on Tuesday, you saw that he isn't even sure who his QB will be on Saturday. Senior Joe Tereshinski is probable, but with a beat up ankle, he
hasn't seen the field since Sept. 9th.

You saw what they looked like two weeks ago vs. the worst Colorado team in our lifetime, and as I said above, they were lucky to get out of Mississippi with a W last week. Coming to Athens on Saturday is a Tennessee team that pounded a very good Cal team and outnumbered Florida in the air. Let me ask you this, if the Vols held on to beat the Gators, what would this line be then?

Here it is, Georgia is a home 'Dog for only the second time since '99 and both of those times they lost both SU and ATS. Where's The Money? Georgia is 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS hosting SEC opponents the last four years, very good numbers. You don't think the odds-makers know that? Now they're making them a home dog? And Georgia's the higher ranked team.

Folks, They're giving us this one! They're telling us that the Bulldogs are about to get exposed "Big Time." Wait till game time, let the squares jump on the home dog, get a better line, and let Phil "Full of Himself" Fulmer lead you to the cash out window.

Sweeps, Screens and Tackle Traps
* UAB is 6-0 both SU and ATS the last six years vs. Memphis

* Navy has won and covered the last three years vs. Air Force

* Oregon is 9-2 SU and ATS vs. Cal. Since '92

* The favorite has covered in five of last six in the Pitt. vs. Syracuse series

* Iowa State is 8-14 ATS since '98 as a home 'dog

* Oklahoma State is just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 Big 12 road games

* Texas A&M is only 8-20 ATS in Big 12 road games since '99

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