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By The Guy Next Door
Nov 10, 2006, 10:59

South Carolina (+13½) at #4 Florida (3:30est-CBS)

Whether it's the guy in the corner coffee shop or Donald Rumsfeld, its amazing how people's lives take strange and unforeseeable paths. Six years ago it was old visor head strutting his stuff on the Florida sidelines and chucking the ball all over the field, at times, just toying with the other teams in the SEC. Now, after helping himself to the fruits of Daniel Snyder's money tree, Steve Spurrier returns to the place he single handedly put on the college football map. One thing hasn't changed though, and that's the Gators winning SEC championships. With their win over Vanderbilt last week, the Gators clinched the SEC East. Now if we were talking about the New York Yankees clinching the American League East, they may shut things down and coast down the stretch. This Saturday in the Swamp, there will be no coasting.

Coach Urban Meyer's Florida Gators aren't looking ahead to the SEC Championship game in Atlanta on the first Saturday in December. Their target is the National Championship. No coach in this day in age will admit looking ahead, but in a press conference this week, Meyer just as well may have. When asked if his team played (Saturday) like a National Championship team, he responded with, "No, but I don't think Ohio State or Michigan played like that either."

That right there shows that he's campaigning already. Add to that his negative remarks about Louisville's defense this week and you can see that Meyer has one eye on the polls and those teams ahead of his. This week, the Gators will have to do something that Spurrier did magically for years, win with style and pizzazz.

That city in southern Nevada put out a total of 44 for you throw punches at. In the last five years the average point total between these two teams has been 53, with four of the five games eclipsing the 44 mark with ease. Florida's 28-7 win in 2002 was the only game that stayed under. Where's the Money?

This is the time of year when teams have to put up or shut up. In Meyer's coaching history it seems that every time he's got a point to prove his teams put up and this week will be nothing different. Now that Louisville lost on Thursday night, the door has just opened up like the inside rail at Hollywood Park.

Florida has just been handed a sack of gold nuggets and it's up to them to run with it. The Gators are playing in that 3:30est CBS national time slot and they know that's one of the games each week that the country's voters don't need a satellite dish to watch. The Gators step it up here and put some points on the board. And don't think for a minute that the coach on the other side of the field doesn't have a trick or two up his sleeve. This one goes over.

Alabama (+18) at #12 LSU
(7:45est-ESPN)

What screams big time college football more than a night game in Death Valley, where the Bayou Bengals are 30-3 since '02. Many would argue that this is the toughest road venue in all of college sports. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS at home so far this year, and are coming off of a gutsy road win at Tennessee where they put together a game winning drive as the clock was winding down. The Crimson Tide, on the other hand, lost at home to a terrible Mississippi St. team last Saturday.

An old, battle tested gambler once told me that you're never as good or as bad as your last game. Those words are ringing in my head this week. Yes, Miss. St. went into Tuscaloosa and won their first SEC road game in 24 tries. And yes, that's a tough one for the Tide to bounce back from, but for years Alabama has had that disease known as playing down to bad competition. That won't be the case this Saturday night. The Tide has taken the field against three ranked teams this year, all as dogs and all on the road, and they have covered in all of them.

Let's not forget: Alabama went to overtime at Arkansas (and covered), played at Tennessee to a three point game (and covered) and although it was the season opener, they shut down Hawaii, who has proven to have the county's best offense.

Where's the Money? My information dates back to 1998. Since then, Alabama has only been a double digit underdog six times. They are 5-1 ATS in those games. Alabama is currently 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 SEC road games. Furthermore, the visiting team in this series (which Alabama is this week) is 11-2-1 ATS the last 14 years. If I haven't gotten your attention yet, I will now. Alabama has won 18 of the last 20 games they have played at LSU. And this Saturday they're getting 18 points? Ya know folks, this is gambling. Can LSU win by more than 18? Absolutely! But this is SEC football, and as history dictates, when your getting this many points in THIS series, you better jump on it like your first girlfriend.

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