| College Football Betting Tips By Bryan Mulroney bryanmulroney@yahoo.com College Football Commentator Aug 19, 2006 - 12:39:00 PM |
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I could discuss at length the benefits of a number of approaches and systems, but for our purposes here I will only focus on three tips that you can use to get an edge. Using just these simple three tips, you'll notice a marked improvement in your results against the Vegas line.
Let's get started:
Number One :: Research College Football Before Betting
How simple is this? Research is essential, imperative, crucial, of utmost importance, etc... but entirely too often we overlook this first step. We bet other people's locks, overhear the guy in line in front of us touting OSU over Whoever and plunk our dollars down...
You should NEVER lay money on a play you know nothing about!
Begin your research reading the preseason magazines. Keep an eye on the college football news sites. Know who is injured or sitting out. Watch the games on Saturday, check the stats online, make sure you pay attention to the nonsense points and yards racked up in the 4th quarter and so forth.
You must know the teams you bet. You have to understand a strong passing team will not generally play well in windy weather. That finesse running team you're so fond of, is a whole different beast than a power rushing team. You need to understand misleading finals, garbage points, and backdoor covers. If these things make your mind spin that's fine for now. We still have several weeks until kickoff and you can easily learn all you need about the terminology of betting with a few hours online.
The point is, do the legwork, know who you bet. Analyze strengths and weaknesses and contrast these to the game fundamentals. Use more than a hunch when you bet college football. If you don't have the time to do at least a minimal analysis, you shouldn't be putting cash on the line.
If you absolutely refuse to listen to this logic please consider sending your money to me instead in a sealed well concealed envelope as you'll have the same result at the end of the season. My address can be obtained by emailing. ALternatively, if you are too bull-headed and greedy to do that, at least get a service subscription of some sort to get the analysis and information you need to keep from losing your rear too quickly.
Number Two :: Manage Your Money
If I haven't lost you with the "Number One" barrage, you probably are bright enough to avoid a losing college football season. Losers aren't necessarily stupid, they just make common errors and refuse to bet responsibly.
Managing your college football bankroll is essential to a winning season. Franklt in this article I have nowhere near the time to get into the nuances of a solid money management system, but be aware that you should have some workable strategy in place before opening day kickoff.
You need only 52.5% winners to make money over the course of a season, but way too many people play stupid. A simple money management strategy will do the trick as long as you can avoid the temptation to leap into these common pitfalls:
Common Betting Mistake One: Winning games one and two during the day and doubling up your evening bet to finish strong. This often results in losing all of your previous winnings.
Common Betting Mistake Two: Chasing a bad morning with evening bets that you haven't researched and don't know just to salvage a bad week. Everyone has down weeks. Stick with the games you researched and bet only those.
Come up with a plan and a system that works for you and wager only the amount that the plan dictates. There are a number of betting systems out there that will work. I prefer a flat bet system where you wager the same amount on every game every week, but if you like an incremental system, that can work fine as well. For example, if you start the season with a college football bankroll of 10K (it is an easy round number), pick a certain number of games each week to wager (maybe 5-10, this will depend on your research and available time) and after research and rank the games from 1-5. Bet one unit (percent of your bank available) per point ranked. So if you bet Notre Dame over GT as a "three" rank, you would bet $300 or three units. If you felt more confident, you would bet up to $500 or if, less as low as $100. (Working with a smaller roll of $1,000 you could drop a zero and bet from $10 - 50).
You will have up and down weeks with this or any system, but stick to your guns. You will end up on the wrong side of things if you begin doubling up or chasing. Don't get crazy with props and futures and other loser bets to make up for losses. Simple and steady is a long term winner.
Number Three :: Shop for the Best Line
Aside from your research, this tip takes the most time and labor. However, it is well worth the cost of the work to a long term bettor.
Check the line against multiple books (this can be easily done online nowadays) and make your play on a line that is the most favorable to your position. Oftentimes you'll find three or four with the same line but the fifth or sixth has a half (or on the rare occassion, even a full point) going either way. Using multiple books and lines and finding line value can win you a few "bonus" games throughout the college football season.
Another way to capitalize on line value is to be an expert on the teams in the Non-BCS conferences. Lines for the big schools aren't frequently "off" by much, but when you see a line giving major points to a solid MAC, WAC, or MWC school, you'll often realize this is a result of a public misconception of the strength of the school versus its BCS Challenger.
College Football Betting Conclusions:
Think, bet, win....
Don't rush your plays, don't chase, don't bet on impulse. Make wise choices with lines, money management, and in placing your wagers....
And good luck.....
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