| These Dogs are Salivating By Steve Kosmider The Guy Next Door Sep 21, 2007 - 2:57:59 PM |
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The heavily chalked Bruins got blown out 44-6. Beware of Pit-Bulls and Dobermans when playing on the road my friends. For those of you who follow my weekly column, you know that I am 1-3 so far this year, but that's going to change this week. There are two key underdogs on the card that are begging for attention and we're going to fill our bowls with Milkbones!
Iowa State (-4) at Toledo
Last we saw of the Cyclones they were kicking a game winning field goal as time expired to upset Iowa in the most emotional game they will play this year. You've got to throw out all records and stats in that series because they mean about as much as Mark May's opinion. Iowa State has now covered the number in that game nine of the last ten years. Toledo is backed into a corner. They are 0-3, but have played teams that are over their head. After back-to-back road games, the Rockets return home to the Glass Bowl where they are always dangerous. For Iowa State this is a dead spot. They guzzled down their bottle of "Get-Up Juice" last week and will open their Big 12 season in Lincoln, NE. next week. Can you say flat as a punctured tire on a country road?
Since '02 the Cyclones have only been road favorites three times and didn't cover in any of them. Conversely, under "Big Tom" Amstutz the Rockets are 5-1 ATS as home dogs and a busting at the seams 30-5 SU overall in the Glass Bowl. This is a sandwich game for Iowa State and we're gonna woof it down. Toledo plus four gets a checkmark.
Baylor (-4) at Buffalo
Like Toledo, the Buffalo Bulls have spent much of their time playing teams out of their league. In week one, they got fried up on a skillet at Rutgers. Last week they lost by 21 at Penn. State, but easily covered the "magic" number. And you know what, they led 3-0 after the 1st quarter and they outscored the Nittanies 21-14 in the 4th quarter. Yes, I know that was against Penn. State's second string, but is Baylor's number one unit really better? Nestled in between was what could be considered a program measuring stick. In week one of LAST year, Buffalo beat Temple at home, in overtime, 9-3. In week two of THIS year Buffalo played at Temple. They steamrolled to a 42-7 win. That's a four touchdown swing. What that tells us is that Buffalo, with 18 starters returning, has vastly improved in a calendar year.
Baylor plays the role of road favorite for only the fourth time in this decade. Their Big 12 affiliation is the ONLY reason they're favored here. Last week Baylor gave up 330 yards in the air to I-AA Texas State, while barely squeaking out a 34-27 win. Buffalo's Drew Willy put up 300yds. on Penn. State. Now the Bears travel to the Eastern Time zone for only the second time since '99 and let's face it, for a team from Waco, Texas, traveling to upstate New York may as well be Baghdad.
Going back to last year Baylor is 1-7 ATS in their last eight lined games, and like Iowa State, they also begin their conference slate next week vs. in-state rival Texas A&M. You don't think they won't be looking ahead? Meanwhile, after three straight on the road, Buffalo finally gets to take advantage of their home opener.
Tell me Baylor Athletic Director Ian McCaw isn't regretting scheduling this one! Let's grab those four points and the home cooking and give Turner Gill and his stock rising Bulls some support this week.
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